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No description
The model is depicted below:
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The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
| | biological |
| | ecological |
| | human |
| | cheetah |
No description
The following nodes are assigned to cheetah:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to human:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to ecological:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to biological:
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Assessed as an overall gain or loss in the free-ranging cheetah population in north central Namibia
Name | = CheetahPopulationViability |
Label | = Cheetah population viability |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
gain | : No description |
loss | : No description |
Parents
No description
Name | = humanfactors_oobn |
Label | = Human Factors Subnetwork |
Instantiated from | humanfactors_oobn |
No description
Name | = ecological_oobn |
Label | = Ecological Subnetwork |
Instantiated from | ecological_oobn |
No description
Name | = biological_oobn |
Label | = Biological Subnetwork |
Instantiated from | biological_oobn |
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No description
The model is depicted below:
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The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
| | Habitat |
| | Human |
| | Legislation |
| | Economic |
| | Cheetah |
| | output |
No description
The following nodes are assigned to output:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to Human:
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This is the legal and illegal removal of the cheetahs from the wild either by killing or direct removal of the cheetahs.
Name | = CheetahRemoval |
Label | = Cheetah
removal |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Decrease | : Decrease in cheetah removals from existing levels. |
Increase | : Increase in cheetah removals from existing levels. |
Parents
Habitat Changes refer to the negative impacts associated with the use of natural resources which leads to land fragmentation, habitat loss and other destructive impacts.
Name | = HumanHabitatImpact |
Label | = Human habitat
impact |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Positive | : No description |
Negative | : No description |
Parents
Human population growth in north central Namibia is stimulated by increased economic benefits. This in turn leads to humans encroaching into the cheetah habitat.
Name | = HumanPopulationGrowth |
Label | = Human population
growth |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Parents
The percentages for the whole country is as follows:
Commercial = 43 %
Communal = 37 %
Protected Areas = 20 %
Name | = Landuse |
Label | = Land use |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Protected Areas | : Protected areas are lands allocated for conservation
(people generally don't live on the land but a small proportion do on some e.g. Caprivi region).
Categories:
National parks
Game reserves & parks
|
Commercial | : Commercial farming is privately owned land where wildlife resources are legally owned by landowners.
Different economic activities:
livestock farming
game farming
conservancies
resettlement |
Communal | : Communal farming is mainly subsistance farming where wildlife resources are legally owned by the State.
Different economic activities
livestock farming
crop farming
conservancies |
Prey poaching means the illegal killing of prey.
Name | = PreyPoaching |
Label | = Prey
poaching |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Parents
Monetary, tangible benefits for the local people and the country at large.
Activities include:
Live Game Sales
Trophy Hunting
Tourism
Consumer Driven Awareness (green products)
Name | = EconomicBenefits |
Label | = Economic benefits |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
High | : No description |
Medium | : No description |
Low | : Insignificant or no economic benefits at all. |
Parents
Environmental education encompasses basic as well as scientific knowledge regarding the cheetah and its survival. This targets professionals, farmers, students and local communities, and instilling national pride and recognition.
Chris Gordon comment: You are probably talking about 2000 farmers from this area, and CCF covers 300 per year. There is also training from Agra and other organisations, I would say possible 20% coverage.
Name | = EnvironmentalEducation |
Label | = Environmental education |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Farmer education targeted towards reducing conflict through livestock, pasture, wildlife management and financial planning.
Name | = FarmerEducation |
Label | = Farmer education |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Human Cheetah conflict is defined as direct confrontation between humans and cheetahs.
Name | = HumanCheetahConflict |
Label | = Human cheetah conflict |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Low | : No description |
Moderate | : No description |
High | : No description |
Parents
Looking at the effectiveness of Wildlife legislation implementation, affecting Poaching, Cheetah Removal & Human Habitat Impact.
Based on elicited probs, P(Enforced/Wildlife Legislation) = 0.35, P(Wildlife Legislation) = 0.25, so P(Enforced & Wildlife Legislation) = 0.25*0.35 = 0.0875, i.e. approx 9%
Name | = LegislationImplementation |
Label | = Legislation implementation |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Enforced | : No description |
Not enforced | : No description |
Involves both livestock and wildlife management in a more sustainable way, meeting both the needs of people and wildlife. Practices involves herding (herd dogs, herder, donkeys etc.) kraaling, calving seasons, maternity camps, vacination against infectious diseases just to mention a few.
Name | = LivestockWildlifeMgt |
Label | = Livestock & wildlife management |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
High | : No description |
Low | : Insignificant or no protection at all. |
Parents
Namibian community awareness of Cheetah Conservation issues in Namibia through various outreach programs such as newspapers, television, the internet, radio, publications etc.
Name | = LocalCommunityAwareness |
Label | = Local community awareness |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Parents
These are negative social impacts which deprive people of their basic needs.
They are:
Poverty
Unemployment
HIV/AIDS etc.
Name | = SocialImpacts |
Label | = Social impacts |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Parents
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No description
The model is depicted below:
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The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
| | input notes |
| | output notes |
| | ecological factors |
No description
The following nodes are assigned to ecological factors:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to output notes:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to input notes:
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Space available for free-roaming wild cheetah population up to a certain carrying capacity.
Name | = AvailableSpace |
Label | = Available space |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Capacity Available | : No description |
Capacity Reached | : No description |
Capacity Exceeded | : No description |
Parents
Density of larger predators, likely to effect cheetahs.
Name | = IntraguildDensity |
Label | = Intraguild density |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Higher | : No description |
Medium | : No description |
Lower | : No description |
Parents
Amount of palatable plant biomass being available for cheetah's prey.
Assuming here that plant biomass is the most important habitat variable for herbivores - acknowledging that this is quite simplified.
Name | = PlantBiomassProduction |
Label | = Plant biomass
production |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Sufficient | : No description |
Insufficient | : No description |
Parents
Amount of rainfall, categorised into low, medium and high. Data can be provided by Meteorological Services.
Subdividing Namibia into regions would provide further insight.
Name | = Rain |
Label | = |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Higher | : No description |
Average | : No description |
Lower | : No description |
More suitable, Neutral or less suitable vegetation structure for cheetahs.
Percentage grass cover or bush cover are data sources for this node.
Name | = VegetationStructure |
Label | = Vegetation structure |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Thick Bush | : No description |
Medium Bush | : No description |
Sparse Bush | : No description |
Parents
Current adult cheetah within study area (Namibia) - output node
Name | = IntraspecificDensity |
Label | = Intraspecific
density |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Higher | : No description |
Medium | : No description |
Lower | : No description |
Parents
Prey abundance (output node)
Name | = PreyAvailability |
Label | = Prey
availability |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Abundant | : Sufficient is average of 400-600 cheetah prey per 5000 ha.
Abundant is 600 and above.
In is 400 and below. |
Sufficient | : No description |
Insufficient | : No description |
Parents
Cheetah removal (input node from Human Factors)
Name | = CheetahRemoval |
Label | = Cheetah
removal |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Decrease | : No description |
Increase | : No description |
Human habitat input node (from Human Factors)
Name | = HumanHabitatImpact |
Label | = Human habitat
impact |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Positive | : No description |
Negative | : No description |
Landuse input node (from human factors)
Name | = LandUse |
Label | = Land use |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Protected Areas | : No description |
Commercial | : No description |
Communal | : No description |
Prey poaching (input node from Human Factors)
Name | = PreyPoaching |
Label | = Prey
poaching |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
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No description
The model is depicted below:
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The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
| | genetics |
| | input node |
| | output node |
No description
The following nodes are assigned to output node:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to input node:
No description
The following nodes are assigned to genetics:
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Net gain/loss from outside of the study area
(output node)
Name | = ImmigrationEmigration |
Label | = Immigration-
emigration |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
gain | : immigration > emigration |
loss | : immigration < emigration |
Death of adult cheetah males and females (output node)
Name | = Mortality |
Label | = Mortality |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
increased | : No description |
decreased | : No description |
Parents
Successful pregnancies + survival of born cubs to adulthood.
Underlying assumption: about 95% of removed cheetahs by humans are males. Thus, there is a negligable impact from the node cheetah removal to recruitment, since only 5% of mothers will be affected by the removal.
Stress level as a direct impact on recruitment was not taken into account because of controversial literature on the direct effect of stress on fertility.
(output node)
Name | = Recruitment |
Label | = Recruitment |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
increased | : No description |
decreased | : No description |
Parents
Cheetah removal (input node from Human factors
)
Cheetahs are not killed in a random way. Farmer mainly set box traps at marking trees, where mainly (about 95%) males get caught and killed. Most of these males probably are the resindet males defending the marking trees. This is relavent for the node 'female mate choice'.
Name | = CheetahRemoval |
Label | = Cheetah
removal |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Decrease | : No description |
Increase | : No description |
Human population growth (input node from Human factor
s)
Name | = HumanPopulationGrowth |
Label | = Human
population
growth |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Yes | : No description |
No | : No description |
Intraspecific density (input node from Ecological factors)
Name | = IntraspecificDensity |
Label | = Intraspecific
density |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Higher | : No description |
Medium | : No description |
Lower | : No description |
node from Ecological factor
Name | = Prey_Availabilty |
Label | = Prey
availability |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
Abundant | : Abundant: plenty of cheetah prey species, no extra effort needed to hunt successfully
. |
Sufficient | : Sufficient: enough cheetah prey species to get adequat nutrition, but some extra effort needed to hunt successfully
. |
Insufficient | : Insufficient: not enough cheetah prey species to support all individual, i.e. quite a number of cheetahs will starve. |
The number of males with different genetic outfits from which a female can choose a mate partner.
Underlying assumption (derived from the Serengeti study Gottelli at al 2007): females prefer males with a territory. For Namibia this means that females prefer males using a small range around marking tree clusters these males are in a better health status than other males, unpublished data Wachter et al). These males are also the males the farmers are more likely to kill when setting traps at marking trees, so the farmers provoke a higher turnover of males females prefer to mate.
Name | = FemaleMateChoice |
Label | = Female mate choice |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
increase | : No description |
decrease | : No description |
Parents
Absence of genetic defects (caused by load of deleterious alleles in the gene pool, and critcally low functional genetic diversity).
Impact of genetic defects is negligeable based on field data despite low genetic diversity.
Impact of cheetah removal has a direct negative and indirect positive (via female mate choice) effect. The direct negative effect refes to a decreasing gene pool with decreasing number of individuals and the indirect positive effect refers to an increased female mate choice due to higher male turnover by male removals. The positive effect is assessed to be stronger than the negative effect. Chance that males are killed is high (about 95%).
Name | = Genetic |
Label | = Genetic |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
increased | : increased: consequence of decreased load of deleterious alleles
|
decreased | : decreased: consequence of increased load of deleterious alleles |
Parents
Health - clinical signs of diseases, injuries and starvation
Name | = Health |
Label | = Health |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
increased | : increased chance of absence of pathology, i.e. health gets better
|
decreased | : decreased chance of absence of pathology, i.e. health gets worse |
Parents
Effect of stress hormones (corticosteroids)
Name | = Stress |
Label | = Stress |
Type | = Discrete Labelled Node |
States
increased | : No description |
decreased | : No description |
Parents
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Created on Thu Aug 08 09:12:48 CEST 2013
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