namibian_cheetahs_oobn

No description

The model is depicted below:

namibian_cheetahs_oobn

Cheetah population viability Human Factors Subnetwork Ecological Subnetwork Biological Subnetwork

Groups

The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
biological
ecological
human
cheetah

cheetah

No description

The following nodes are assigned to cheetah:

human

No description

The following nodes are assigned to human:

ecological

No description

The following nodes are assigned to ecological:

biological

No description

The following nodes are assigned to biological:

Nodes

Cheetah population viability

Assessed as an overall gain or loss in the free-ranging cheetah population in north central Namibia

Name= CheetahPopulationViability
Label= Cheetah population viability
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

gain: No description
loss: No description

Parents

Human Factors Subnetwork

No description

Human Factors Subnetwork (humanfactors_oobn)

Name = humanfactors_oobn
Label = Human Factors Subnetwork
Instantiated from humanfactors_oobn

Ecological Subnetwork

No description

Ecological Subnetwork (ecological_oobn)

Name = ecological_oobn
Label = Ecological Subnetwork
Instantiated from ecological_oobn

Biological Subnetwork

No description

Biological Subnetwork (biological_oobn)

Name = biological_oobn
Label = Biological Subnetwork
Instantiated from biological_oobn

humanfactors_oobn

No description

The model is depicted below:

humanfactors_oobn

Cheetah removal Environmental education Social impacts Legislation implementation Human habitat  impact Livestock & wildlife management Local community awareness Farmer education Economic benefits Human population growth Prey  poaching Human cheetah conflict Land use

Groups

The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
Habitat
Human
Legislation
Economic
Cheetah
output

output

No description

The following nodes are assigned to output:

Human

No description

The following nodes are assigned to Human:

Nodes

Cheetah removal

This is the legal and illegal removal of the cheetahs from the wild either by killing or direct removal of the cheetahs.

Name= CheetahRemoval
Label= Cheetah removal
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Decrease: Decrease in cheetah removals from existing levels.
Increase: Increase in cheetah removals from existing levels.

Parents

Human habitat impact

Habitat Changes refer to the negative impacts associated with the use of natural resources which leads to land fragmentation, habitat loss and other destructive impacts.

Name= HumanHabitatImpact
Label= Human habitat impact
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Positive: No description
Negative: No description

Parents

Human population growth

Human population growth in north central Namibia is stimulated by increased economic benefits. This in turn leads to humans encroaching into the cheetah habitat.

Name= HumanPopulationGrowth
Label= Human population growth
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Parents

Land use

The percentages for the whole country is as follows: Commercial = 43 % Communal = 37 % Protected Areas = 20 %

Name= Landuse
Label= Land use
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Protected Areas: Protected areas are lands allocated for conservation (people generally don't live on the land but a small proportion do on some e.g. Caprivi region). Categories: National parks Game reserves & parks
Commercial: Commercial farming is privately owned land where wildlife resources are legally owned by landowners. Different economic activities: livestock farming game farming conservancies resettlement
Communal: Communal farming is mainly subsistance farming where wildlife resources are legally owned by the State. Different economic activities livestock farming crop farming conservancies

Prey poaching

Prey poaching means the illegal killing of prey.

Name= PreyPoaching
Label= Prey poaching
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Parents

Economic benefits

Monetary, tangible benefits for the local people and the country at large. Activities include: Live Game Sales Trophy Hunting Tourism Consumer Driven Awareness (green products)

Name= EconomicBenefits
Label= Economic benefits
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

High : No description
Medium: No description
Low: Insignificant or no economic benefits at all.

Parents

Environmental education

Environmental education encompasses basic as well as scientific knowledge regarding the cheetah and its survival. This targets professionals, farmers, students and local communities, and instilling national pride and recognition. Chris Gordon comment: You are probably talking about 2000 farmers from this area, and CCF covers 300 per year. There is also training from Agra and other organisations, I would say possible 20% coverage.

Name= EnvironmentalEducation
Label= Environmental education
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Farmer education

Farmer education targeted towards reducing conflict through livestock, pasture, wildlife management and financial planning.

Name= FarmerEducation
Label= Farmer education
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Human cheetah conflict

Human Cheetah conflict is defined as direct confrontation between humans and cheetahs.

Name= HumanCheetahConflict
Label= Human cheetah conflict
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Low: No description
Moderate: No description
High: No description

Parents

Legislation implementation

Looking at the effectiveness of Wildlife legislation implementation, affecting Poaching, Cheetah Removal & Human Habitat Impact. Based on elicited probs, P(Enforced/Wildlife Legislation) = 0.35, P(Wildlife Legislation) = 0.25, so P(Enforced & Wildlife Legislation) = 0.25*0.35 = 0.0875, i.e. approx 9%

Name= LegislationImplementation
Label= Legislation implementation
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Enforced: No description
Not enforced: No description

Livestock & wildlife management

Involves both livestock and wildlife management in a more sustainable way, meeting both the needs of people and wildlife. Practices involves herding (herd dogs, herder, donkeys etc.) kraaling, calving seasons, maternity camps, vacination against infectious diseases just to mention a few.

Name= LivestockWildlifeMgt
Label= Livestock & wildlife management
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

High: No description
Low: Insignificant or no protection at all.

Parents

Local community awareness

Namibian community awareness of Cheetah Conservation issues in Namibia through various outreach programs such as newspapers, television, the internet, radio, publications etc.

Name= LocalCommunityAwareness
Label= Local community awareness
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Parents

Social impacts

These are negative social impacts which deprive people of their basic needs. They are: Poverty Unemployment HIV/AIDS etc.

Name= SocialImpacts
Label= Social impacts
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Parents

ecological_oobn

No description

The model is depicted below:

ecological_oobn

Cheetah  removal Prey  poaching Human habitat  impact Vegetation structure Land use Intraguild density Plant biomass  production Rain Available space Intraspecific  density Prey  availability

Groups

The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
input notes
output notes
ecological factors

ecological factors

No description

The following nodes are assigned to ecological factors:

output notes

No description

The following nodes are assigned to output notes:

input notes

No description

The following nodes are assigned to input notes:

Nodes

Available space

Space available for free-roaming wild cheetah population up to a certain carrying capacity.

Name= AvailableSpace
Label= Available space
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Capacity Available: No description
Capacity Reached: No description
Capacity Exceeded: No description

Parents

Intraguild density

Density of larger predators, likely to effect cheetahs.

Name= IntraguildDensity
Label= Intraguild density
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Higher: No description
Medium: No description
Lower: No description

Parents

Plant biomass production

Amount of palatable plant biomass being available for cheetah's prey. Assuming here that plant biomass is the most important habitat variable for herbivores - acknowledging that this is quite simplified.

Name= PlantBiomassProduction
Label= Plant biomass production
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Sufficient: No description
Insufficient: No description

Parents

Rain

Amount of rainfall, categorised into low, medium and high. Data can be provided by Meteorological Services. Subdividing Namibia into regions would provide further insight.

Name= Rain
Label=
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Higher: No description
Average: No description
Lower: No description

Vegetation structure

More suitable, Neutral or less suitable vegetation structure for cheetahs. Percentage grass cover or bush cover are data sources for this node.

Name= VegetationStructure
Label= Vegetation structure
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Thick Bush: No description
Medium Bush: No description
Sparse Bush: No description

Parents

Intraspecific density

Current adult cheetah within study area (Namibia) - output node

Name= IntraspecificDensity
Label= Intraspecific density
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Higher: No description
Medium: No description
Lower: No description

Parents

Prey availability

Prey abundance (output node)

Name= PreyAvailability
Label= Prey availability
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Abundant: Sufficient is average of 400-600 cheetah prey per 5000 ha. Abundant is 600 and above. In is 400 and below.
Sufficient: No description
Insufficient: No description

Parents

Cheetah removal

Cheetah removal (input node from Human Factors)

Name= CheetahRemoval
Label= Cheetah removal
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Decrease: No description
Increase: No description

Human habitat impact

Human habitat input node (from Human Factors)

Name= HumanHabitatImpact
Label= Human habitat impact
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Positive: No description
Negative: No description

Land use

Landuse input node (from human factors)

Name= LandUse
Label= Land use
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Protected Areas: No description
Commercial: No description
Communal: No description

Prey poaching

Prey poaching (input node from Human Factors)

Name= PreyPoaching
Label= Prey poaching
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

biological_oobn

No description

The model is depicted below:

biological_oobn

Immigration- emigration Health Recruitment Prey  availability Female mate choice Genetic Intraspecific  density Stress Cheetah  removal Human  population growth Mortality

Groups

The nodes can be assigned to the following groups:
genetics
input node
output node

output node

No description

The following nodes are assigned to output node:

input node

No description

The following nodes are assigned to input node:

genetics

No description

The following nodes are assigned to genetics:

Nodes

Immigration- emigration

Net gain/loss from outside of the study area (output node)

Name= ImmigrationEmigration
Label= Immigration- emigration
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

gain: immigration > emigration
loss: immigration < emigration

Mortality

Death of adult cheetah males and females (output node)

Name= Mortality
Label= Mortality
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

increased: No description
decreased: No description

Parents

Recruitment

Successful pregnancies + survival of born cubs to adulthood. Underlying assumption: about 95% of removed cheetahs by humans are males. Thus, there is a negligable impact from the node cheetah removal to recruitment, since only 5% of mothers will be affected by the removal. Stress level as a direct impact on recruitment was not taken into account because of controversial literature on the direct effect of stress on fertility. (output node)

Name= Recruitment
Label= Recruitment
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

increased: No description
decreased: No description

Parents

Cheetah removal

Cheetah removal (input node from Human factors ) Cheetahs are not killed in a random way. Farmer mainly set box traps at marking trees, where mainly (about 95%) males get caught and killed. Most of these males probably are the resindet males defending the marking trees. This is relavent for the node 'female mate choice'.

Name= CheetahRemoval
Label= Cheetah removal
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Decrease: No description
Increase: No description

Human population growth

Human population growth (input node from Human factor s)

Name= HumanPopulationGrowth
Label= Human population growth
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Yes: No description
No: No description

Intraspecific density

Intraspecific density (input node from Ecological factors)

Name= IntraspecificDensity
Label= Intraspecific density
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Higher: No description
Medium: No description
Lower: No description

Prey availability

node from Ecological factor

Name= Prey_Availabilty
Label= Prey availability
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

Abundant: Abundant: plenty of cheetah prey species, no extra effort needed to hunt successfully .
Sufficient: Sufficient: enough cheetah prey species to get adequat nutrition, but some extra effort needed to hunt successfully .
Insufficient: Insufficient: not enough cheetah prey species to support all individual, i.e. quite a number of cheetahs will starve.

Female mate choice

The number of males with different genetic outfits from which a female can choose a mate partner. Underlying assumption (derived from the Serengeti study Gottelli at al 2007): females prefer males with a territory. For Namibia this means that females prefer males using a small range around marking tree clusters these males are in a better health status than other males, unpublished data Wachter et al). These males are also the males the farmers are more likely to kill when setting traps at marking trees, so the farmers provoke a higher turnover of males females prefer to mate.

Name= FemaleMateChoice
Label= Female mate choice
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

increase: No description
decrease: No description

Parents

Genetic

Absence of genetic defects (caused by load of deleterious alleles in the gene pool, and critcally low functional genetic diversity). Impact of genetic defects is negligeable based on field data despite low genetic diversity. Impact of cheetah removal has a direct negative and indirect positive (via female mate choice) effect. The direct negative effect refes to a decreasing gene pool with decreasing number of individuals and the indirect positive effect refers to an increased female mate choice due to higher male turnover by male removals. The positive effect is assessed to be stronger than the negative effect. Chance that males are killed is high (about 95%).

Name= Genetic
Label= Genetic
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

increased: increased: consequence of decreased load of deleterious alleles
decreased: decreased: consequence of increased load of deleterious alleles

Parents

Health

Health - clinical signs of diseases, injuries and starvation

Name= Health
Label= Health
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

increased: increased chance of absence of pathology, i.e. health gets better
decreased: decreased chance of absence of pathology, i.e. health gets worse

Parents

Stress

Effect of stress hormones (corticosteroids)

Name= Stress
Label= Stress
Type= Discrete Labelled Node

States

increased: No description
decreased: No description

Parents


Created on Thu Aug 08 09:12:48 CEST 2013